josh rosner

Posts Tagged ‘Barnaby Joyce’

NO BARNABY, NO

In Australian Politics on April 20, 2011 at 7:52 am

I had a piece published today on The Drum about Barnaby Joyce’s hair-brained scheme to challenge Tony Windsor in the electorate of New England. For some weeks now I have been having conversations with friends and colleagues about the chances of the independents being re-elected, so with Barnaby Joyce’s kind-of-sort-of proclamation this week that he would be a fool not to consider challenging in the seat of New England, I couldn’t resist putting pen to paper, as it were, and airing my opinion on the matter.

So, for the record – and this should come as no surprise – here are my predictions:

Bob Katter will be easily and comfortably re-elected in Kennedy, probably increasing his primary vote to something like 90% from the unthinking, right-wing idealogues who inhabit his electorate. He will be amply rewarded for not supporting Labor.

Rob Oakshott will be defeated in Lynne and the Nats will take back the seat. Oakshott has been mostly erratic and incoherent since he was elected to federal parliament and he will be entirely incapable of making a viable argument to his electorate for re-election and why he supported Labor.

Tony Windsor will be re-elected in New England, although his comfortable 21 percent margin will be reduced. Some voters will punish him for supporting Labor, but as I argue in my piece on The Drum, his electorate is a large and diverse one. It has some large towns, a large university and values education and honesty. Tony Windsor is intelligent and will make a coherent argument for re-election, which his thinking electorate will mostly appreciate. In a competition between Tony Windsor and Barnaby Joyce, Windsor wins hands down!

In my piece I suggest Barnaby Joyce should cast his net wider if he is desperate to move to the lower house. Lynne is an electorate of Pauline Hanson voting racists and rednecks who is more concerned with what’s in it for them and how many days until the next welfare payment. The people are Lynne are a much better fit for the gaffe-prone, bumbling Barnaby Joyce.

You can read my piece here.